Mathematical Modeling of Ecological Consequences of Climate-Induced Phenological Shifts on Predator-Prey Dynamics

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century, with far reaching consequences for ecosystems and biodiversity. Among the myriad impacts of climate change, phenological shifts changes in the timing of biological events such as flowering, migration, and reproduction are particularly significant. These shifts can disrupt the synchrony between species interactions, especially in predator-prey relationships, which are fundamental to the stability and functioning of ecosystems. This study seeks to address this issue by developing and analyzing mathematical models that capture the effects of phenological changes on predator-prey interactions. The models incorporate time delays to represent phenological mismatches and use delay differential equations (DDEs) to describe the dynamics of predator and prey populations. Through equilibrium analysis, stability analysis, and bifurcation analysis, the study explores how varying degrees of phenological mismatch affect population stability and ecosystem resilience. Numerical simulations demonstrate that longer time delays can induce oscillations and destabilize the system, highlighting the importance of considering time delays in ecological modeling. The findings of this research could inform conservation strategies and ecosystem management practices in the face of ongoing climate change, providing insights into mitigating the ecological disruptions
caused by phenological mismatches.

Keywords: Phenological shifts, climate change, ecosystem stability